Vegas Elite Free NBA Picks

A nice winner for us yesterday. Those of you who didn't take Dallas on the moneyline
had to sweat it out but in the end the Mavs got the job done pushing us to 29-10 (+23.7)
units in 2009. How many of your other investments are showing that kind of return this year?

For today, as much as I'd like to try to make some money, there are just no favorable matchups. Both the computer and filters have today labeled as a losing day so enjoy a nice calm day with
no investments.

On the bright side, just because there are no plays doesn't mean we can't learn something. People email me quite often asking about the "buying points". You can follow this blog very successfully and never buy a single point. To be honest...I don't want to buy points, however, the NBA is the one sport where the spread matters most in relationship to winning and losing. In the NFL 79.8% of the teams that win the game will cover the spread. In NBA that is not even close to the reality. There are many bad teams like Oklahoma City who cover 65% of their games and have only won around 10 times.

Back to point buys.....there was an interesting study done by Tod Wilkinson and his statistics team....(Tod is a well known pro here in Vegas and a leader in research www.platinumsportsinvesting.com ) and they found that "5" is one of the most dangerous spreads in NBA. It's a bad number for favorites and underdogs alike so When the game is close down the stretch and it comes down to free throws they found that you want your favorite to be -3 or less and if you're playing the dog you want to be +6 or higher to maximize your covers. So what you'll find with our free picks is that we'll recommend you play the same way we are. That's why we have cash on hand to play here in Vegas but we also have a nice piece of change offshore because if the line comes out and our team is -5....we can only buy a point here on the strip in Vegas so we'd play that game offshore and take the line to -2.5.

Of our 29-10 record we've had 7 games where our point buy recommendations were the difference between a win and a loss or push. So if done properly, buying points at the right time can make a big difference in your bottom line.

The NBA usually produces two types of games ....10+ point winners and tight games with free throw battles down the stretch. So the next time you are just watching NBA games, pay attention to how many times you'd be on the wrong end if you just stand pat with that -5 or +5 spread.

Just a little food for thought on this day off.

Jimmy Young


YTD: 29-10 (+23.7 Units)